Population growth has been a crucial part of Arizona’s economic engine. This population growth is reflected in the increasing number of students enrolled in K-12 education and the increasing number of public schools, both district and charter. According to national statistics, our growth is expected to continue; the National Center for Education Statistics currently projects that Arizona’s K-12 population will grow by 20 percent between 2010 and 2021.
A recent look at enrollment trends for the last 17 years confirms the growth trajectory of public school enrollment in Arizona, but it also shows recent inconsistencies in that trajectory. The graphic below shows the total K-12 enrollment in Arizona from 1996 to 2013. Over this period of time, enrollment swelled from 723,000 to 1.05 million students, an increase of 46 percent. For most of that time the growth was consistent— increasing by about 2 to 4 percent each year. However, starting in 2009, the state’s student enrollment begins to fluctuate. The decreases are small—6,000 fewer students in 2009, 2,300 fewer students in 2011, and another 2,000 in 2012—but potentially significant. The rate of growth did not just slow down in some years, but the number of students decreased for the first time in at least 13 years.
Given the year after year of growth prior to 2009, the first question that comes to mind is, “What happened?” The economic recession is a plausible explanation. So too may be the anti-immigrant policies which began in 2007. Without more detailed population and student demographic data, along with economic measures, such as Arizona’s gross domestic product, foreclosure or unemployment rates, we cannot answer this question.
The second question we asked ourselves is, “Why does it matter?” It matters to the state because our economy has relied heavily on growth. And it matters to schools, in particular, because school funding is based on student enrollment and it is provided to schools on a “per pupil” basis. Not only did public schools see a dramatic decline in resources due to the economic recession, they also saw a decline in resources due to the loss in enrollment.
No one expects Arizona to decrease in population or students in public schools over the long term, even when taking into account the fluctuations in recent years. At worst, we will not grow as much as we once believed. The National Center for Education Statistics’ 2011 report, projected that Arizona would grow by 26% from 2008 to 2020 (using actual enrollments through 2008) but adjusted the projection to 20% by 2021 when it incorporated actual enrollments through 2010.
However, short term fluctuations in enrollment—even relatively small ones—can still have a significant impact, particularly if they occur only in certain parts of the state or affect only certain school districts or groups of students. The Association will look at more detailed enrollment information, along with other demographic and economic indicators, to understand better “what happened?” and determine whether these fluctuations vary across the state or among groups of students.
