Stanford University’s Educational Opportunity Project linked state academic results across the country, allowing you to explore both proficiency and growth over time across the country for schools nationwide. They were also kind enough to make the data available. The Stanford data reveals about achievement and growth in Arizona schools, where we stand, and where our opportunity for improvement lie.
First a bit of context the below chart displays rates of academic proficiency (horizontal) and rates of academic growth for public schools in Alabama. Each dot in the chart represents an individual public school and the chart divides into four quadrants. The quadrant you really want is high growth and above average proficiency (top right) and the one you really want to avoid is low growth, below average proficiency (bottom left). Note that while proficiency rates are strongly correlated with student demographics, growth is much less so.
I chose Alabama for two reasons- first it has among the nation’s lowest scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) and second because if you look at the earliest available NAEP data at the state level (1990) Arizona often nudged out Alabama but fell behind all of the other participating states. In any case while Alabama has schools in every quadrant, most of their schools land in the quadrant you really want to avoid (low academic growth over time, below average proficiency). This Stanford data does not stretch back far, but we have reason to believe based on NAEP that an early 1990s Arizona chart would not have been radically different than the current Alabama chart.
Massachusetts falls at the other end of the scale on the NAEP. A wealthy state holding not only several demographic advantages but also a reputation for high quality schools, Massachusetts had a long run of consistently scoring at the top of NAEP exams. The Stanford data in fact reflects this as well. Massachusetts has a much higher concentration of schools in high growth/high proficiency, and as a point of further context the average level of academic performance in Massachusetts compares favorably to the top European and Asian systems on international exams. The difference between the first chart and the second chart is the difference between agony and ecstasy.
So does Arizona look more like Alabama or more like Massachusetts? Arizona is different than both:
Two very notable things from the Arizona chart: first Arizona has many schools that match the top Massachusetts schools in proficiency and growth in the top right quadrant. That is obviously very important. This becomes apparent when you put Arizona and Massachusetts schools into the same chart. It’s no optical illusion that you see Arizona blue peeking out in the top right quadrant- the most effective schools in Arizona are world class performers.
The plurality of Arizona schools however falls into the High Growth and Below Average Proficiency quadrant (top left). This is the source of our greatest opportunity-many of these are also world class schools. The two schools far at the top of growth are Ruiz Leadership Academy and Mexicayotl Academy, charter schools operating in South Phoenix and Nogales respectively. These schools have some of the highest rates of academic growth in the nation.
Sustained academic growth will move schools from the top left quadrant into the top right quadrant. Efforts for state capitols to micromanage a sprawling field of schools generally end in frustration, but policymakers on their A-games can provide incentives and resources to help educators achieve and sustain success. Governor Ducey has proposed a system of financial incentives based upon a pilot program that demonstrated strong results in improving low-performing academic schools. Known as Project Rocket, this program has the potential to move schools out of the bottom left quadrant. In addition, the Governor proposed incorporating growth into the state’s system of Results Based Funding. This program is designed to help successful schools sustain their growth through retaining teachers and to give successful schools the opportunity to serve more students.
School results are more like an ocean liner than a jet ski- you don’t see many schools turn on a dime from low growth and below average proficiency into the high growth and above average proficiency. Schools at the bottom of both categories must establish and sustain improvement, moving up through growth and over by sustaining it. It is hard work for both educators and students and it work our policies should actively support those efforts.
The future of Arizona education rests in moving schools out of the bottom of the chart and then over to the right. Don’t make the mistake of betting against Arizona educators and students- they’ve surprised people before and with the right support they will do it again.
