Tricks & Treats for Arizona . . .

The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) is administered to a random sample of students nationally and by state. Similar to an opinion poll, apparent numerical changes can be within the “margin of error” and thus may be the result of differences in sampling rather than actual differences in outcomes.  NAEP recently released 2022 state level scores in 4^th and 8^th grade reading and mathematics – the first state level NAEP data available since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Arizona Public Charter School Results

Arizona’s public charter school students suffered one statistically significant decline – on 4^th grade mathematics. On the 4^th grade math and reading exams however, charter and district scores showed no statistically significant difference. Further, on 8^th grade level math and reading exams, charters showed a statistically significant advantage over districts. As shown below, they would also rank first among all 50 states for 8^th grade mathematics:

Arizona Statewide NAEP Results

Arizona’s 4^th grade reading scores dropped by a single point on a 500 point scale between the 2019 and 2022 tests, within the margin of error, therefore not statistically significant. Arizona’s 8^th grade reading scores showed no change between 2019 and 2022 but nationally scores saw statistically significant declines in both reading exams.

Nationwide, there were much larger and statistically significant declines on both 4^th and 8^th grade mathematics. The same was true in Arizona. Nationally 4^th grade math scores dropped by 5 points;  and in Arizona, they decreased by 6 points. Nationwide, 8^th grade math scores decreased by 8 points and in Arizona by 9 points. The differences in math scores both nationally and in Arizona are statistically significant.

Analysis

The 2022 NAEP represents a hard reset on academic achievement outcome data. Before the pandemic, Arizona demonstrated strong gains on NAEP, and as measured by the Stanford Educational Opportunity Project,  also led the nation in the average annual rate of academic growth per year both overall and for low-income students. While these achievements reflect a collective ability to overcome pandemic related learning loss, they are also in a sense academic archeology. Past results are not necessarily a guarantee of future performance.

Both NAEP and state assessment data reveal that Arizona students suffered a learning loss in mathematics,. Without remediation, these deficits could be reflected in assessment data for years to come. Unaddressed they can damage the future of our state.

It is important to note that the 2022 NAEP exams were administered prior to the implementation of Arizona’s state sponsored summer remediation programs in which 100,000 students participated. Governor Ducey has announced that this program will be funded again in the summer of 2023. Additional intervention efforts from schools, community groups, and families are also needed for students to fully recover.

Previously, Arizona’s public charter schools emerged from the economic crisis of the Great Recession with stronger academic outcomes. It is no small feat to rebound twice within the span of just over a decade. In fact, the national trend in declining NAEP scores before COVID-19 shows that many systems were unable to do it once.

Now more than ever, Arizona students depend on the creativity, commitment, and expertise of our charter sector to rebound from pandemic related learning loss.